Luck doesn’t exist

5 Sep

First I think I should define what I mean by “luck”.  For the purpose of this post Luck will be defined as: a pseudo-magical force that intervenes in affairs to lead to a favorable outcome.

Take a motorcycle stunt driver:

Now this whole jump is subject to the laws of physics. He needs at least X velocity to clear the jump and land on the adjacent ramp. He either has it or he doesn’t. It is cut and dry. There is no invisible “luck” factor that will magically show up and push his bike just a little bit farther to land safely on the ramp. He might come very close to not meeting that threshold of X, which would give the illusion of luck, but as long as he is over the required energy threshold he will make it. It doesn’t mater if he makes it by .00001, or 5+, all that maters is that he has >X

Take roulette as another example.

When you spin the wheel and toss the ball into it, there is no room for luck. All the variables exist, you just don’t know them. Look at it this way:

The wheel starts in position X. The dealer then spins the wheel putting Y amount of energy into it. Take into account friction of all kinds and you will get Z result. It would be difficult to measure all these variables, but that doesn’t mean they don’t exist. Not knowing the variables exactly creates the illusion of chance.

You could say with absolute certainty how a coin or die would land if you knew every variable there was to know. It would be simple math. Again, because it’s so difficult to discover these variables as precisely as needed, the illusion of luck is created.

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